Here is the typical home buyers thought process over last 8 years or so in the San Diego real estate marketThese home prices cant keep going upI need to buy before prices get too highI cant afford to buy anything nowThe Bubbles going to burstPrices have come down but Im going to waitI’ll buy in 12 monthsI still think prices are going to dropDoes this sound familiar?
Oh wait, let me guess “ now you think Downtown San Diego is over built, right? I dont blame you. The media paints a terrible picture and Im sure you have at least one neighbor, one coworker, or one relative whos been trying to sell their home and they keep dropping the price. Yes, its a slow market but homes are selling. Id bet that if you asked the people you know who are trying to sell their home, if other homes in their neighborhood have recently sold, that theyd say yes. The problem is that some people are still being unrealistic when it comes to pricing their home right, or maybe they just have a bad Realtor.
Now lets take a look at Downtown San Diegos inventory.
Aria is an Australian built building that is located in the Cortez Hill area. Aria was completed earlier this year and still has about 100 condos left to sell, out of 137 condos total. Aria is the second building that its developer, Anka, has built in San Diego. The first was Alta which is located on 6th and Market “ Aria is a nicer building, but many people prefer Altas location.
Breeza is a mid rise building that is scheduled to be completed in November of 2008. Located at the southern edge of Little Italy, Breeza is an Intergulf building(they also built Treo and La vita) which will only be nine stories, with 158 condos. Breeza has sold around 100 condos, leaving them with just over 35% sold.
Both Breeza and Aria are mid-level buildings.
Sapphire Tower is being built by Centurion Partners and is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2008. Sapphire Tower will consist of 96 condos on 32 floors. The building is approximately 55% sold, with only 40 or so condos left. This will be a high-end building, focusing on larger floor plans and luxurious amenities. Sapphire Tower is located in the Columbia District, next to The Grande.
And those are the only three new buildings Downtown San Diego will be seeing in 2008.
For 2009, San Diego will be introduced to Bosas Bayside and Pointe of View development will bring Vantage Pointe to Downtown.
Bayside is located in the up and coming Columbia District and will be a very high-end luxury tower. With 241 condos, Bayside will also be focusing on larger, luxurious floor plans and will even feature electric car charging stations. Bosa has sold approximately 40% of these condos.
Vantage Pointe is an East Village project and will bring a whopping 679 units to the market. Currently, they have sold 45% of these units, but Im not sure the remaining 370 or so units will go forward as condos. It is rumored that a portion of these will be kept as rental units(there are three towers to this building) and not sold off. Vantage Pointe is an entry-mid level building.
So there you have it. In the next 12 months, there will be at most an additional 1,174 condos(not including the already completed Aria) in Downtown San Diego. Of these, approximately 513 have already been sold “ 44% sold.
What about all the other buildings that are supposed to be built? Well to make a long story short, they arent. Heres a list of buildings that have no tentative date, or are up for sale, but do have permits approved, according to CCDC:
Thats 2,377 condos that are either put on hold, or wont ever be built.
Outside of 2008 and 2009, only 15th and Island(617 condos in 2011), India and Beech(78 condos in 2010) and Pier(228 condos in 2010) are scheduled to move forward. Sure there are buildings being built, but not as many as most people think. A lot of places have been put on hold and many will probably move forward as rentals. And keep in mind that only a few higher end buildings will be built. You can look at the total number of condos being built and just say, too much is being built. Take a minute to figure out what you want to buy and how much of that is being built.
San Diego is under priced. There are no better West coast metropolitan cities and we are the cheapest “ by far.