And while I’m sure many of you have seen this clip, I just wanted to share it with those who haven’t, or those who want to take a second look. As we all know, real estate goes through cycles, typically 7–10 years, and this clip gives a great interpretation of what’s happened over the last century or so. Take a look at this video that is based on Robert Shiller’s Irrational Exuberance 2^nd Edition…

As mentioned in the beginning of the clip, the roller coaster is representing the US real estate market from 1890–2007 and the “Speculative Bubble.” Shiller is a PhD professor at Yale University and well known for having shown evidence that he predicted the stock market crash in the 90’s. And while I have not checked his data on this video, I’m pretty sure it’s accurate enough.The video shows that from about 1997–2006, US home prices have risen at a steady rate. In San Diego, we’re hearing and seeing, that home values peaked around September of 2005.

As the ride comes to an end at 2007, the roller coaster sits dangerously close to the end of the tracks and it looks like it’s a long ways down.Is there a bubble? Doubtful. Most economists are now stating that home values here in San Diego have leveled off and as we were one of the first areas to be affected by falling prices, we’ll be one of the first to come out of this slump.

Looking at both years, we have a total sales value of $392,615,728 for 2006 and $367,251,118 for 2007 (these statistics are from SANDICOR and only for Downtown San Diego – 92101). This shows that 2007 is just 6.5% behind 2006’s total sales volume. At the end of 2006, Downtown San Diego sold homes at an average sales price of $702,353 and a median sales price of $575,000. In 2007, Downtown showed an average sales price of $617,228 and a median sales price of $515,000 - a difference of about 11% in terms of median sales price.

In terms of units sold, 2007 was about 6% more active than 2006, but produced lower sales prices, reflecting the media’s negativity and shift in the market.

Do these statistics mirror your opinion of what was going on with the real estate market? Do they reflect what you read in the newspaper? Does this really lead you to believe that there are a ton of foreclosures and short sales? Isn’t it funny how these facts seem to contradict so many of those negative news headlines? Interesting…

My take is that prices will remain fairly flat this next year and will slowly creep up in 2009. In the end, the questions is, why do you want to buy? Why do you want to own a home? And if the answer is, because you want a place to have of your own and you want to quit wasting your rent, then do you really think trying to save a few thousand dollars will matter in 5–10 years when you sell it?

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Other Related Reads:

Great Condo Deals in Downtown San Diego
2007 Sales Statistics at The Grande San Diego
Who Sells The Most Homes in San Diego?

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