How Many More Short Sales Can There Be?

Posted on October 31, 2012 | by Denny Oh

Comparing the first three quarters of 2011 to 2012, we can clearly see that San Diego’s real estate market is making a strong recovery.  The average condo price has risen 6.27% and while the average detached home price has only gone up about 1%, the total number of detached home sales has increased by 15.19% (condo sales have increased by 1.36%).  Also, 2012 has had over $1.4 billion more in sales than 2011.  Not bad San Diego!

Subprime Mortgages

Countywide, San Diego has steadily been decreasing the amount of delinquent mortgages.  Looking at all subprime mortgages (basically loans with higher interest rates, given to people who are at higher risk of defaulting) in San Diego County – which account for only 4.1% of all SD County mortgages – roughly 25% of them were 90 days delinquent (in May of 2012).   The year before, there was a 32.6% delinquency rate – so we’ve seen a 7.2% decrease in subprime loan defaults.  The foreclosure rate for subprime loans has slowed as well, from 8.75% in May of 2011, to 8.43% this year.  FYI, San Diego has a lower delinquency foreclosure rate than the US average.

Prime Mortgages

Of the 557,046 prime mortgages in San Diego County, only 8.43% of them were in default as of May 2012.  This figure was down a bit, from 8.75% in May of 2011.  Nationwide, 13.6% of all prime mortgages were in default this past May.  Additionally, only 1.79% of the prime loans in SD were being foreclosed on (down from 1.92% the previous year).

 

Conclusion

The market is picking up and more people are buying homes.  Market times are down and as you can see above, it doesn’t look like there’s going to be any “flood” of short sales or foreclosures.  Only 4.1% of all loans in San Diego are subprime loans!  I’ve already mentioned this in another post, but short sales are down over 26% and foreclosures  are down 58% downtown.  So what are you waiting for?  If you have any questions, or want some numbers on a specific neighborhood, please let me know.

Denny Oh 858-243-2092 [email protected]

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