2nd Quarter Downtown Condo Sales

Posted on October 2, 2012 | by Denny Oh

How’s the real estate market?  Well, based on some second quarter stats, the San Diego real estate market seems be picking up.  I looked at the second quarter sales in all the luxury highrsises in the Columbia District in 2012 and compared them to Q2 of 2011 – almost every stat in every building looks better in 2012.  The four buildings I compared, were The Grande (North and South grouped into one stat), Bayside, Sapphire Tower and Electra.

To start with, I looked at active Days on the Market (DOM).  This tells us how long properties are being marketed for, without an accepted offer.  The average DOM for Q2 of 2012, was just over 64 days, versus 104 days in Q2 of 2011!  That’s almost 40% less time on the market.  This shorter market time was probably due to that fact that there’s been very little inventory, combined with the fact that buyer confidence is higher.

The next statistic I analyzed was the number of condos sold.  With the exception of Bayside, Q2 sales for both 2012 and 2011 were pretty similar, with 2011 having one or two more sales in each highrise than 2012.  Bayside had significantly more sales in 2011 because there was more to sell then (Bosa was still getting rid of their last units).  I’m confident that there would have been more sales this year, had there been more options to choose from.

Finally, I looked at what’s probably most indicative of the market  – sales price, versus the list price.  After comparing the sales price vs list price (SP/LP), it’s clear that the market has shifted. On average, these four luxury highrises sold for only 5% less than the asking price!  In 2011, sales were 8% below the asking price, confirming that the demand is higher now (at least relative to the supply) and perhaps that sellers (and buyers) are more aware of what’s going on with the market.

To me, it’s clear that the market has shifted and we’ve passed the bottom.  Virtually every buyer I represent is in a multiple offer situation and with no new condos for at least 3 years, I think we’ll continue to see prices rise (albeit, slowly).  If you have any questions about San Diego real estate, please call me at 858-243-2092 or email me at [email protected]  

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